It has become an article of faith among conservatives that we needn’t panic to much about the recent election. Yes we have work to do, but this is still, after all, a conservative country.
Or is it? The Hoover Institute’s Tod Lindburg writes the following in today’s Washington Post:
We are now two elections into something big. This month’s drubbing is just the latest sign that the country’s political center of gravity is shifting from center-right to center-left. Republicans who fail to grasp this could be lost in the wilderness for years.
In 2004, Republicans and Democrats each constituted 37 percent of the electorate. In the 2006 congressional election, Democrats outnumbered Republicans 38 percent to 36 and won big. This year, the Democrats made up a stunning 39 percent of the electorate, compared with just 32 percent for the Republicans. Add the painful fact that Obama outpolled McCain among independents, 52 percent to 48, and you have a picture of a Republican Party that has lost its connection to the center of the electorate.
The McCain campaign was not shy about letting voters know about the elements of Obama’s record that marked him as a man of the left. Perhaps voters simply didn’t believe a word of it, but a better explanation is that a majority of them heard McCain’s warnings and just didn’t mind. Center-left nation, anyone?
There is no question that the GOP is in real trouble. I’m especially concerned about where we stand with regard to younger and college-educated voters. But, being a policy wonk, I believe we can develop some policy innovations that may get us back in the game with some of those voters, especially around the issue of entitlement reform.
And, we need candidates. Let’s not forget that much of Obama’s win can be attributed to his being a once-in-a-generation political talent. He even said himself that people project their hopes on him. That is tough to compete with, even if you have policy approaches that people like. So we need, to use Ross Douthat’s phrase, “populist wonks” who can speak to working class Americans but demonstrate an encyclopedic knowledge of policy innovation.
We have lots of work to do, and we need to keep Lindburg’s findings in mind. Let’s not take for granted that this may be a center-right nation. Let’s work to make it one.
